A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
